When I worked in someone else’s company, I was talking to my boss’s boss.

I brought up how I thought suburban and rural prices of real estate were going to increase, and downtown (think Manhattan or The Loop) were going to plummet.

That was in the last few years, and it will happen in the next 7-10 years (black swan willing)

Why?

I asked a bunch of questions.

Self-driving autonomous cars, I think they have to happen, based on Elon Musk starting been focusing on this for the last five years, and will keep attacking it.

My assumption: self-driving cars are going to happen.

Here’s how to predict the future:

I will not change my predictions 10 years down the road from right now (Tues, Jan 27, 2015) Even better, could I use a Young Jeezy song title?

And then what? 

When you can ask that, the world opens up.

Here’s how I thought about real estate pricing:

1) Cars become semi or fully autonomous. I saw this as had-to-happen because there’s so many smart people working on it.

And then what? 

2) What happens when cars drive themselves? Then a commute wouldn’t mean anything would it? “If a car drives itself, I can work while I drive. Or watch TV while I drive!”

And then what? 

3) If commute time means nothing, why the hell would I live so close to my job?! If I could have a five-acre yard and still work in Manhattan, why wouldn’t I?

And then what? 

bell-curve

4) Imagine real estate prices (right now) like a bell curve, with the peak being THE BEST apartment in the city. Using Chicago, when you get 10 minutes from The Loop, prices drop a bit. When you get 50 minutes from the loop, prices plummet.

When cars can drive themselves, the peak will be pushed down, and the left and right sides of the bell curve puff out.

If you want to predict the future, ask yourself “and then what” 5 times.

You’d be amazed how smart you get when you start doing this. I’m a not a very smart man, but I get by alright with this system.

Until next time,

Jack

HappyForTheRestOfYourLife.com